Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Infobesity.

Alvin Toffler popularised this term way back in his 1970 best seller, Future Shock. It referred to difficulties in making decisions with too much data to process, information overload. It is a subject I have opined on in the past and analysis paralysis, complication of data multiplication and decision indigestion brought on by saturation of data has increased to the extent, we don't decide on anything without checking all the known facts in the Universe before attempting an answer. We have all subscribed to the alerts, tweets, forums and professional amphitheatres of knowledge, hoping they will give us peace of mind in the decision making process. More information equals smarter decisions, is the catch cry of online inhabitants shackled to search algorithms.

Recent studies have brought forward other complications when trying to find answers with data missing and how that affects our decision making process. Princeton and Stanford have raised the question whether our appetite for knowledge reduces the validity of our decisions. The "pursuit and misuse of useless information" study, had the Universities test participants with a scenario linking the seduction of data to decisions made.

Two groups were given the same scenario referring to a mortgage applicant with a well paying job. After some credit checking one group was told the applicant had been tardy in paying a credit card debt of $5000, while the other group was given conflicting information that implied it could be $5000 or $25000. The second group were given the choice of waiting on updates regarding the contrary information until the issue was cleared up, not surprising they chose to wait.

The results of decisions made, became interesting when the second group were told it was $5000 the client had defaulted on, just as in the first group. Interest amongst the researchers piqued, when 71% of the first group rejected the applicants claim while only 21% of the second group rejected the claim. As humans we hate uncertainly and when we find information gaps our radar points to it being important because we were adapted to a time when that radar was all about survival.

The problem today, we overestimate the value of data and think if we are spend extra time finding out, it must be essential. The second group's attention was on whether the debt was $5000 or $25000 and they missed the big picture of a history of default. The minor detail of the small debt seduced them into thinking it was better than they had anticipated and as such gave the applicant the benefit of the doubt and gave him the loan. They had been seduced by thinking the data they were waiting on was more important than the overall picture they were given at the beginning.

The addiction to data that drives most companies, sees decisions made and not made as one more analysis is called for before committing. We know more now than we ever did, we have access to more now than we ever did but the thousands of years prior to the last decade of technology, saw us make decisions with the information at hand and we made some pretty good decisions. So next time you need to make a decision, consider the information you already know and deliberate accordingly. You might be surprised how often you get it right, without expending extra resources on useless information.

1 comment:

Leigh Fletcher said...

Some very interesting research and writing Ollie -

Very true about human nature from my experience!

Real Time Web Analytics